Cosmology Predictions
Failed — TEST-04a Disfavored 2.4σ — σ₈ Amplitude — Kill Triggered (Reframed 2026-07-02)TEST-04a: DESI DR1 fσ₈ — Post-hoc Retrodiction, Disfavored 2.4σ on σ₈ Amplitude (Reframed 2026-07-02)
The framework's primary cosmological test compared against DESI DR1 full-shape (arXiv:2411.12021).
Kill criterion (fσ₈ > 0.46) triggered — LRG1 actual fσ₈ ≫ 0.46. Suppression not observed; data is ΛCDM-consistent. The LRG1 “enhancement” is a single ~1.2σ bin — the ensemble growth index (γ_growth ≈ 0.58 ± 0.11) leans mildly toward suppression, so the load-bearing failure is the σ₈ amplitude, not direction. A 2026-05-25 “correction” claiming kill not triggered was itself an error: 0.4497 ± 0.0548 belongs to arXiv:2512.03230 (DESI Peculiar Velocity Survey, z≈0.07), misattributed to the z=0.51 full-shape slot. Honest verdict: post-hoc retrodiction — disfavored 2.4σ on σ₈ amplitude; suppression mechanism not supported.
Post-hoc note: Session 107 was committed December 2025; DESI DR1 was published April 2024. The “mechanism-class transferable contribution” is NOT restored — it over-reaches for a post-hoc test. Full TEST-04a documentation →
After TEST-04a, the surviving cosmological predictions are those not yet tested by existing data. TEST-03 (RAR scatter) and TEST-04a (DESI RSD) have now both been adjudicated. The remaining predictions below await analysis.
Prediction 1: BAO Modulation (TEST-04 — Withdrawn)
Density-Dependent BAO Peak Shifts
Failed — WithdrawnThe BAO peak position should shift slightly depending on local survey volume density. Overdense regions should show a compressed BAO scale; underdense regions an expanded scale. Predicted shift: ~10−4, roughly 600× smaller than the standard non-linear BAO shifts already measured by DESI (~0.5–1%).
Status — Withdrawn: Three independent failures: (1) the predicted amplitude is 600× smaller than standard non-linear BAO shifts, making it undetectable even at DESI precision; (2) the estimator (density-split cross-correlation) was never specified; (3) Session 107 explicitly contradicts TEST-04's derivation. The prediction is archived, not active. See derivation stub →
Prediction 2: GW-DM Correlation (TEST, untested)
Gravitational Wave – Dark Matter Halo Correlation
UntestedIf both gravitational dynamics and “dark matter” effects emerge from the coherence field, then GW merger rates, signal amplitudes, and waveform characteristics should show systematic correlations with the host galaxy's dark matter halo mass. Mergers in high-density environments should show subtly different dynamics than those in voids.
Kill criterion: with ~1,000 well-localized LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA events, a null correlation falsifies this prediction.
GW170817 constraint: The binary neutron star merger GW170817 constrained |cGW − c|/c < 10−15, killing TeVeS and most scalar-tensor theories. Synchronism does not introduce a tensor-vector-scalar structure and therefore preserves cGW = c by construction — it should not be killed by this constraint. However, an explicit statement that the coherence field has no derivative coupling to the metric at GW propagation scales has not been derived. This is an open gap.
Prediction 3: Environment-Dependent RAR Scatter (TEST-03/05 — Corrected 2026-07-09)
RAR Scatter Varies with Local Density
Untested — TEST-03 Never Run — TEST-05 Tie Dissolved 2026-07-15 (discriminator, never run as registered)On the ALFALFA-SDSS cross-match: σint = 0.086 dex (CDM-consistent) — a figure that belongs to the optimal quality cut, N = 677, not the full sample (N = 14,435 full-sample value is 0.118 dex; sample splice corrected 2026-07-10). The p = 5×10−6, R² = 0.14 environment-detection figure previously shown here is not a valid statistic for this sample — it belongs to SPARC scale (N≈130–175, TEST-05's sample).
Corrected: at N = 14,585, R² = 0.14 implies p of order 10−500, not 5×10−6 — the two numbers cannot describe the same measurement. TEST-03's registered environment-density test on this sample was never run. TEST-05 does own the (R²=0.14, p=5×10⁻⁶) result on its own registered criterion (reject independence) — met, but non-discriminating against MOND's External Field Effect. Full trace: Tier 1: TEST-03/TEST-05 →
Summary Table
| Prediction | Status | Data Source | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| DESI RSD fσ₈ (TEST-04a) | Failed — Disfavored 2.4σ — σ₈ Amplitude | DESI DR1 | Post-hoc; kill triggered; σ₈=0.841 vs predicted 0.76 (2.4σ) — corrected 2026-05-26 |
| RAR env. scatter (TEST-03/05) | Untested — Never Run / Tie Dissolved 07-15 | ALFALFA-SDSS / SPARC | TEST-03 stat was TEST-05's (corrected 07-09) |
| BAO modulation (TEST-04) | Failed — Withdrawn | DESI | Amplitude 600× too small; estimator unspecified |
| GW-DM correlation | Untested | LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA | Awaiting ~1,000 localized events |
| Wide binary anomaly (TEST-02) | Untested — Gaia DR3 | Gaia | Discriminating — ξ(ρ) functional form not yet specified |
What Remains Live
After TEST-03 and TEST-04a, the only live cosmological discriminator is TEST-02 (wide binary density dependence). It is genuinely novel: standard MOND predicts a density-independent anomaly; Synchronism predicts it is stronger in denser stellar fields. But it is currently underspecified — the functional form ξ(ρ) for the density dependence has not been derived. Without ξ(ρ), any future Gaia result showing a non-uniform anomaly can be claimed as confirmation post-hoc.
The framework needs to publish a specific ξ(ρ) before further Gaia analyses resolve the Chae (2023) vs Banik et al. (2024) disagreement. See Wide Binaries for the current state of the observational controversy.