Cosmology Predictions
TEST-04a Disfavored ~2σ — Kill Triggered (Corrected 2026-05-26)TEST-04a: DESI DR1 fσ₈ — Post-hoc Retrodiction, Disfavored ~2σ (Corrected 2026-05-26)
The framework's primary cosmological test compared against DESI DR1 full-shape (arXiv:2411.12021).
Kill criterion (fσ₈ > 0.46) triggered — LRG1 actual fσ₈ ≫ 0.46. Suppression not observed; data is ΛCDM-consistent or above. A 2026-05-25 “correction” claiming kill not triggered was itself an error: 0.4497 ± 0.0548 belongs to arXiv:2512.03230 (DESI Peculiar Velocity Survey, z≈0.07), misattributed to the z=0.51 full-shape slot. Honest verdict: post-hoc retrodiction — disfavored ~2σ; suppression mechanism not supported.
Post-hoc note: Session 107 was committed December 2025; DESI DR1 was published April 2024. The “mechanism-class transferable contribution” is NOT restored — it over-reaches for a post-hoc test. Full TEST-04a documentation →
After TEST-04a, the surviving cosmological predictions are those not yet tested by existing data. TEST-03 (RAR scatter) and TEST-04a (DESI RSD) have now both been adjudicated. The remaining predictions below await analysis.
Prediction 1: BAO Modulation (TEST-04 — Withdrawn)
Density-Dependent BAO Peak Shifts
WithdrawnThe BAO peak position should shift slightly depending on local survey volume density. Overdense regions should show a compressed BAO scale; underdense regions an expanded scale. Predicted shift: ~10−4, roughly 600× smaller than the standard non-linear BAO shifts already measured by DESI (~0.5–1%).
Status — Withdrawn: Three independent failures: (1) the predicted amplitude is 600× smaller than standard non-linear BAO shifts, making it undetectable even at DESI precision; (2) the estimator (density-split cross-correlation) was never specified; (3) Session 107 explicitly contradicts TEST-04's derivation. The prediction is archived, not active. See derivation stub →
Prediction 2: GW-DM Correlation (TEST, untested)
Gravitational Wave – Dark Matter Halo Correlation
UntestedIf both gravitational dynamics and “dark matter” effects emerge from the coherence field, then GW merger rates, signal amplitudes, and waveform characteristics should show systematic correlations with the host galaxy's dark matter halo mass. Mergers in high-density environments should show subtly different dynamics than those in voids.
Kill criterion: with ~1,000 well-localized LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA events, a null correlation falsifies this prediction.
GW170817 constraint: The binary neutron star merger GW170817 constrained |cGW − c|/c < 10−15, killing TeVeS and most scalar-tensor theories. Synchronism does not introduce a tensor-vector-scalar structure and therefore preserves cGW = c by construction — it should not be killed by this constraint. However, an explicit statement that the coherence field has no derivative coupling to the metric at GW propagation scales has not been derived. This is an open gap.
Prediction 3: Environment-Dependent RAR Scatter (TEST-03 — Kill Triggered)
RAR Scatter Varies with Local Density
TEST-03 Kill Criterion TriggeredThe intrinsic scatter in the Radial Acceleration Relation was predicted to depend on local galaxy environment. Tested on 14,585 ALFALFA-SDSS galaxies: p = 5 × 10−6environment detection, σint = 0.086 dex.
Kill criterion triggered: Pre-registered threshold was R² ≥ 0.20 (environment term must explain ≥20% of intrinsic RAR scatter). Achieved: R² = 0.14. The environment detection is real and statistically significant, but the effect size is below the pre-registered minimum to count as framework confirmation. Full RAR scatter analysis →
Summary Table
| Prediction | Status | Data Source | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| DESI RSD fσ₈ (TEST-04a) | Disfavored ~2σ | DESI DR1 | Post-hoc; kill triggered; σ₈=0.841 vs predicted 0.76 (2.4σ) — corrected 2026-05-26 |
| RAR env. scatter (TEST-03) | Kill Triggered | ALFALFA-SDSS | R²=0.14 < 0.20 threshold |
| BAO modulation (TEST-04) | Withdrawn | DESI | Amplitude 600× too small; estimator unspecified |
| GW-DM correlation | Untested | LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA | Awaiting ~1,000 localized events |
| Wide binary anomaly (TEST-02) | Gaia DR3 | Gaia | Discriminating — ξ(ρ) functional form not yet specified |
What Remains Live
After TEST-03 and TEST-04a, the only live cosmological discriminator is TEST-02 (wide binary density dependence). It is genuinely novel: standard MOND predicts a density-independent anomaly; Synchronism predicts it is stronger in denser stellar fields. But it is currently underspecified — the functional form ξ(ρ) for the density dependence has not been derived. Without ξ(ρ), any future Gaia result showing a non-uniform anomaly can be claimed as confirmation post-hoc.
The framework needs to publish a specific ξ(ρ) before further Gaia analyses resolve the Chae (2023) vs Banik et al. (2024) disagreement. See Wide Binaries for the current state of the observational controversy.