Tier 1: Existing Data

Data: SPARC (175 galaxies)

Prediction: Rotation curve residuals correlate with local galaxy density

Kill: No correlation between residuals and environment at 2σ

⚠ Status note: Scope note: TEST-01 (SPARC residuals vs. density) and TEST-05 (RAR scatter vs. environment) test the same underlying prediction — environment-dependent RAR — on different samples. SPARC is higher-quality resolved curves (175 galaxies); ALFALFA-SDSS is larger statistical power (14,585 galaxies). These should be read as two phases of one test, not as two independent tests.

Data: Gaia DR3

Prediction: Wide binary anomaly depends on local stellar density

Kill: Anomaly independent of local density

Data: ALFALFA + SDSS (14,585 galaxies)

Prediction: TFR residual captures all intrinsic scatter (51% improvement)

Kill: TFR residual explains <20% of scatter

⚠ Status note: Kill criterion TRIGGERED — literal reading: R² = 0.14 (environmental term explains 14% of total RAR scatter) is below the <20% threshold stated in the kill criterion. Under a literal reading, this test is FAILED. It remains listed here rather than on /honest-assessment only because the denominator may be mis-stated (kill criterion may have been intended against MOND-residual scatter, not total scatter) — a distinction that changes the verdict. Until the denominator is audited against the archive source, treat TEST-03 as presumptively failed. See research proposal test03_kill_criterion_self_trigger.md.

Data: DESI, SDSS DR17, Euclid

Prediction: BAO peak shifts ~10⁻⁴ between high/low-density regions

Kill: BAO identical everywhere to 10⁻⁵ precision

Derivation status →

Data: SPARC + density catalogs

Prediction: RAR scatter shows NP2 environment dependence (p = 5×10⁻⁶)

Kill: RAR scatter independent of Hubble type / environment

Data: Future resolved rotation curves

Prediction: σ_int remains at 0.086 dex with larger sample

Kill: σ_int > 0.12 dex with N > 1000

Data: SDSS, DES, DESI surveys

Prediction: Galaxy cluster separations show oscillatory modulation at λ ~ 500 Mpc

Kill: No oscillations above 3σ out to 2000 Mpc

⚠ Status note: Not yet a scientific prediction: the /cosmic-interference page itself states "Without it, this is not a prediction in the scientific sense — it is an exploratory hypothesis." No amplitude has been derived from γ/ρ_crit, no mechanism is specified (sound-horizon shift? phase rotation?), and there is no engagement with DESI 2024-2025 BAO results. TEST-07 does not currently qualify as a Tier 1 falsification test. It is listed here as a speculative candidate — a prediction-in-progress, not a prediction.

Derivation status →

Data: SPARC surface brightness data

Prediction: Σ₀ emerges from first principles with <5% error

Kill: Derived Σ₀ differs from observed by >15%

Data: Multi-band TFR datasets split by regime

Prediction: BTFR slope reflects regime mix: deep-MOND sample → n ≈ 4; transition-dominated sample → n ≈ 2.75 (Session 193 full-sample fit); near-Newtonian → n → 2. Lelli 2019 n = 3.85 ± 0.09 is consistent with SPARC being deep-MOND-dominated.

Kill: A single sample produces a BTFR slope inconsistent with its regime-mix prediction by > 0.3

⚠ Status note: Restated 2026-04-24: the earlier prediction "n ≈ 2.2 universal across bands" had no archive source — it was a site→archive transcription error (Session 193 actually predicts n = 2.75 for transition-heavy samples, or regime-dependent: n → 4 deep-MOND, n → 2 near-Newton). Lelli 2019's n = 3.85 is consistent with the archive's per-regime prediction for a SPARC-like deep-MOND-dominated sample, not a refutation. MOND-shared flag: the regime-dependent BTFR slope (n → 4 in deep-MOND, n → 2 near-Newtonian) is a textbook MOND signature (Milgrom 1983, McGaugh 2012). A positive result is consistent with Synchronism AND standard MOND — it cannot discriminate between them.

Data: LITTLE THINGS + SPARC dwarfs

Prediction: DM fraction → 100% for M_bar < 10⁸ M☉

Kill: Baryon-dominated dwarfs below 10⁸ M☉ exist

⚠ Status note: MOND-shared flag: dwarfs below 10⁸ M☉ are deep-MOND systems where standard MOND already predicts the rotation is dominated by the Milgrom term — equivalent to near-100% apparent DM fraction in Newtonian terms. A positive result confirms Synchronism and MOND equally; only a null (baryon-dominated dwarfs below 10⁸ M☉) discriminates. The kill criterion is sharp; the confirm criterion is not.