Test Roadmap
Untested — 24 Proposed ExperimentsSynchronism has defined 24 specific, falsifiable experiments organized into four tiers by cost and feasibility. Every experiment has an explicit kill criterion — a result that would falsify the prediction. This page covers proposed tests; for results on what has actually been analyzed, see below.
Tests use one flat namespace: TEST-01 … TEST-24 across the four tiers (Tier 1 = 01–10, Tier 2 = 11–14, Tier 3+ = 15–24), plus TEST-25, the Cassini/SPARC squeeze added out-of-band 2026-07-28. Suffixes: a = amended sub-test registered after the parent was withdrawn (TEST-04a); s = substituted protocol, run on a different sample than the one registered (TEST-03s). Both suffixes mark a test that is not the registered one and must not be read as the parent's result. (Namespace and suffix grammar stated here 2026-08-10, after a visitor Pass 3 found TEST-11 denoting two unrelated experiments and Pass 2 found the suffix convention undocumented. The Cassini squeeze was renumbered 11 → 25 to clear the collision.) Tier 1 cards live on the Tier 1 page (each test card has an anchor: e.g., /tier-1-existing#TEST-04a). Cross-references elsewhere on the site to TEST-NN resolve directly to those cards.
What's Already Been Analyzed
The “0 Completed” count below refers to the 24 proposed experiments above — none have been run as formal pre-registered tests. Separately, the framework has been checked against existing datasets with these results:
- RAR transition shape (2807 SPARC points, 2026-05-21): γ=2 compander refuted at ΔBIC=+184; free-γ=0.49=MOND — FAILED (γ=2); collapses to MOND at fitted γ (curve-equivalence only — the field equation is postulated in the archive, not derived, and the version stated there is eliminated a priori — corrected 2026-08-09 from “no action, no Lagrangian, no dynamics”). Net discriminating galaxy tests vs MOND: 0.
- Galaxy rotation (14,760 galaxies, SPARC + ALFALFA-SDSS): qualitative curve match — MOND reparametrization, not novel
- TEST-03 TFR scatter: NEVER RUN AS REGISTERED — the R² = 0.14 figure previously reported here was a metric conflation (morphology statistic on N ≈ 171, not the registered test on N = 14,585; corrected 2026-07-09). The environment claim was later executed 2026-07-14 (research repo): r² = 0.0001, ~900× under the framework's >20% claim — environment prediction REFUTED by execution. But not as registered (declared 2026-07-27): that run used N = 141 SPARC galaxies vs Cosmicflows-4 ambient density, not the registered N = 14,585 ALFALFA-SDSS cluster/field/void classification — different dataset, different proxy, ~100× smaller sample. It is designated TEST-03s and the registered TEST-03 remains unrun and runnable. Read the census as 3 registered kills + 1 substituted-protocol kill, not 4 identical ones
- DESI fσ₈ (TEST-04a): UNDERPOWERED AS REGISTERED (corrected 2026-07-14: the registered fσ₈(z=0.51) > 0.46 criterion was met at only ~1.5σ, short of the demanded >3σ; the widely-quoted 2.4σ disfavor is on σ₈, a GR-conditioned statistic that cannot falsify modified growth; DESI's own MG analysis gives μ₀ within 1σ of zero. Not counted in the refutation census. DR2 both-outcome pre-commitment registered 2026-07-17 — the program's first prospective registration)
- Chemistry boundary consistency (1,703 phenomena): 89% consistent — calibration set, not blind test
- Superconductivity (η factor): reproduces Abrikosov-Gor'kov formula — reparametrization
- Born rule: reproduces |α|² via coherence conservation — reparametrization (no deviation predicted)
Overview by Tier
Tier 1: Existing Data
10 testsReanalysis of public datasets (Gaia DR3, SPARC, SDSS, DESI). No new hardware needed.
Cost: $0 • Timeline: 1–6 months
Tier 2: Pilot Experiments
4 testsSmall-scale experiments: EEG studies, circadian rhythm monitoring, QC coherence tests. ⚠ Every C-dependent entry is unrunnable as stated — no protocol maps any observable to C (see the protocol-status box above).
Cost: $50K–$500K • Timeline: 6–24 months
Tier 3: Major Experiments
7 testsDedicated facilities: gravitational wave correlation, multi-messenger astronomy, controlled decoherence.
Cost: $1M–$10M • Timeline: 2–5 years
Tier 4: Frontier
3 testsPushing technology limits: minimal cell γ mapping, cosmic interference detection, consciousness in AI.
Cost: $10M+ • Timeline: 5+ years
Recommendation
Update (2026-07-08): the zero-cost Tier 1 recommendations have all been run or closed. (Scoped to this box's three recommendations — it does not mean no further $0 analysis exists; see the a₀(z) epoch fork on Parameter Derivations, added 2026-07-29, which remains unregistered and may be unrunnable rather than closed.) An earlier version of this box recommended starting with three existing-data tests; all three have since been adjudicated. BAO coherence modulation: Withdrawn 2026-05-04 (internal contradiction, never adjudicated). SPARC environment analysis (TEST-03): Never run as registered (the old “R² = 0.14 kill” was a metric conflation, corrected 2026-07-09); the registered environment claim was executed 2026-07-14 with r² = 0.0001 — refuted. Wide binaries (TEST-02): Self-Eliminating-or-Tie — the predicted 0.05–0.4% signal sits ~80× below Gaia DR3 systematics, and either outcome of the ongoing Chae-vs-Banik dispute is covered by Newton or MOND respectively, so no result selects this framework. See Honest Assessment and Tier 1: Existing Data.
Status
24
Proposed
0
Pre-registered & Completed
10
Zero Cost
The “Pre-registered & Completed: 0” counts only tests whose kill criterion was registered before the relevant dataset was analyzed. This is distinct from the retrospective analyses in the “What's Already Been Analyzed” box above (galaxy rotation, chemistry, TEST-03/04a). Those analyses produced results, but they were not pre-registered prospective predictions.